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Spring Flooding Potential in Western Maine

April 11, 2011 - Rumford — The spring flooding threat is above normal in Western Maine because of a saturated snowpack that has yet to melt, according to the National Weather Service.


That could change next week when temperatures are expected to shoot into the 60s.


However, without significant rainfall looming, any flooding from snowmelt could be minimal, hydrologist Tom Hawley said Wednesday.
“We may luck out this year if I don't see any big, heavy rains on the horizon,” he said.


Hawley issued the latest flood potential outlook on Friday during a heavy, wet snowstorm that dumped 8 or more inches in the mountains.


The statement is based on a number of factors, including climatology, snow depth, snow-water equivalent, soil moisture and water supply conditions, and river and ice conditions.


“There's an awful lot of water in the mountains, so that still has to melt out, and it looks like next week we're going to be quite warm," Hawley said.


Over the past two weeks, Hawley said, the mean upper-level flow has been from the northwest. That's why Maine had colder than normal weather and a storm track that was near or to the south of northern New England.


He said that pattern will change to where the storm track will be mainly west of New England, allowing precipitation to fall as rain in southern areas and snow changing to rain in northern areas.


“Rainfall is the most important factor, but that's not to say we couldn't get some minor flooding once the snow melts," Hawley said. "That's certainly possible, but a major flood wouldn't occur without heavy rainfall.”


In the western mountains to the Canadian border, snow depth ranges from 18 to 30 inches, with locally higher amounts. Snow-water equivalents range from 5 to 12 inches, Hawley said.


Robert Johnston, a senior geologist with the Maine Geological Survey in Augusta and a member of the Maine Cooperative Snow Survey, confirmed this Wednesday.


He measures snowpack depth and water densities at 20 sites each week. Among them, Bridgton had 13.2 inches of snow, Roxbury had 15 inches and Newry had 27 inches.


According to snow survey findings posted Wednesday, snow depths ranged from 33.4 inches at the Kennebec Water Power Co. site at Carrabassett to 2.8 inches at West Kennebunk.


In the snowpack at Screw Auger Falls in Newry, Johnston said he found 8.6 inches of water. He found 8 inches of water in snow in Weld and Phillips.


“That's a healthy amount of water,” he said. “When you pull a core out, a lot of times that bottom part is just saturated with water.”
Snow consistency also changed.


“Last week I was walking on top of the snow and never had to put my snowshoes on,” Johnston said. “This week, the whole column of snow is just crystallized and it's quite wet. Sometimes you put your snowshoe down and go right to the bottom of it. I was kind of wet after both days.”
Hawley said the soil moisture in Western Maine and reservoir levels in the Androscoggin River drainage basin were also above normal as of March 31, but any ice-jam threats are gone.


“The rivers don't seem too full at this point, but you can see evidence that the banks have been full, because you can see dirt up on the snow,” Johnston said. “But right now, the melt is going slowly.”

Terry Karkos, Sun Journal, April 2011


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