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U.S. Census: Population of N.H. Exceeds Maine's

December 28, 2009 - AUGUSTA -- For the first time in more than two centuries, more people live in New Hampshire than in Maine, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The last time the Granite State's population exceeded Maine's was 1800, when Maine was a district of Massachusetts and the White House was occupied by its first resident, President John Adams.

Both states now have about 1.3 million residents. The data released Wednesday put New Hampshire ahead by 6,274 people.

Maine's population actually decreased from July 1, 2008, to July 1, 2009, according to the data. It was perhaps the first annual population decline since the late 1600s, when a series of attacks by indigenous people drove settlers back to southern New England.

The state's population had steadily increased since the first census, in 1790, but in the past year it declined by 1,390 residents, from 1,319,691 to 1,318,301.

Only two other states, Michigan and Rhode Island, lost population in the past year.

The census data are just estimates, based on a survey of public records rather than an actual head count. Definitive population data will come from the 2010 census around this time next year.

But Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire, said the estimates have proven reliable in the past.

The data point to an emerging baby gap between Maine and New Hampshire.

New Hampshire is growing because it had nearly 43,000 more births than deaths from 2000 to 2009, compared with only 12,000 more for Maine, Johnson said.

While many of the people who move to New Hampshire are young families with children, he said, more people are dying in Maine because the state has many more older residents and there aren't as many women in their child-bearing years.

"The rate of natural increase is extremely low" in Maine, he said.

Southern New Hampshire has become part of suburban Boston, while Maine remains largely rural, said Charles Colgan, a public policy and management professor at the University of Southern Maine's Muskie School of Public Service.

Maine has depended on migration from other states for growth in recent years, he said. Because of the recession, domestic migration has slowed significantly throughout the United States, and that has affected Maine.

In the past year, more people moved out of Maine than moved in, producing a domestic migration loss of nearly 3,000 people.

Many of Maine's newcomers have traditionally come from Massachusetts. In 2005, about 60,000 people moved out of the Bay State. But in the past year, Massachusetts had a domestic migration gain of 3,600.

Paula Morin, a real estate broker in York County, said her clients in states such as Connecticut and New York have had to delay plans to move to Maine because they have been unable to sell their homes.

Colgan said the closure of the Brunswick Naval Air Station is also reflected in the new census data.

He said Maine is not at risk of losing a congressional seat from the 2010 census. But the 2020 census poses a risk, "if trends continue." Congressional seats are apportioned based on states' populations.

Maine can still count on having some bragging rights over its neighbor.

New Hampshire's just a little over a quarter the size of Maine.

By TOM BELL, Staff Writer,Portland Press Herald, December 24, 2009


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