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Tourism Depends on Weather, Wallets

May 20, 2009 - AUGUSTA -- Tourism officials are holding their breath, hoping the country's economic distress doesn't prevent the millions of Americans living within a day's drive of Maine from coming to visit.

They expect the trends of the past few years – people booking shorter vacations not far in advance of their visits – will continue, and that means weather will play a critical role in determining how successful the season is for the Maine tourism industry.

"It's our largest either positive or negative," Greg Dugal, executive director of the Maine Innkeepers Association, said of the weather and advance forecasts.

Dugal said Maine's tourism businesses didn't do too badly last summer, especially considering record-high gasoline prices that peaked in July. But the financial crisis that hit full force last fall ate into business during the critical leaf-peeping season, and business has been down at most inns and hotels by double-digit percentages over the winter and this spring, Dugal said.

Advance reservations have started to pick up, he said, although that's less an indication of how peak tourism season might turn out than it has been in years past.

He noted that four of five lodging bookings for last July and August were made within 60 days of reservation dates, "which is the shortest window I've seen in my 30 years in the business."

This year, uncertainty over the economy and the desire to make sure a vacation stay isn't washed out will likely mean that the vast majority of tourists will book within 30 to 45 days of their travel dates, Dugal said.

Still, Dugal and others in the industry said, Maine actually has a few advantages during an economic downturn, assuming the weather cooperates.

For one thing, tens of millions of people, from Portsmouth to Philadelphia and north to Quebec and Montreal, live within a day's drive of Maine. Even with gas prices climbing again, driving is far cheaper than flying and those who see a forecast of sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s in Maine can opt at the last minute for a trip out of a hot city.

The Maine Office of Tourism is promoting cheap – officials prefer the word "value" – activities such as hiking and birding, instead of shopping and fine dining, to those thinking of visiting the state this summer.

The office's new ad campaign, with the theme, "There's More to Maine," promotes those activities, on the theory that taking the family to see a lighthouse is easier on the wallet than a trek through Times Square or a stay in Disney World.

Pat Eltman, the tourism office's director, said visits to the state and spending by tourists were virtually unchanged last year compared to 2007 – but, as she is fond of saying, "flat is the new up."

She said Americans still want to travel, and the largest percentage in a recent survey was still undecided about where to go this year. In the Northeast, those undecideds are Maine's target audience. The state's new television ads are aimed at the Boston and New York markets, and a newspaper insert to run in Maine papers this weekend – to convince natives to stay and spend close to home – will also run in Boston in early June.

Some advertising will also run north of the border to convince Canadians to try a "two-nation vacation," she said.

The appeal to Mainers to vacation within the state has some natural advantages. Many Mainers feel that the state's warm summer is their well-earned reward after enduring another harsh winter.

"I never leave Maine in the summer," said Kurt Adams of Yarmouth, who has seen the impact of the financial crisis on tourism elsewhere: He and his family went to Hawaii this winter and the crowds seemed "sparse."

Sue Moreau of Vassalboro said she visited family members in Florida over the winter, but like Adams, she tends to stick closer to home in the summer. She said not only is it cheaper to camp and hike in-state, "this is the best time of the year."

Dugal thinks Maine's simple pleasures might appeal to those looking to get away without depleting their bank account. He said Maine is like "comfort food" to travelers in the Northeast and those who haven't come here for a while might rediscover it this year.

Eltman said travel forecasts bear that out. While AAA is forecasting that Memorial Day weekend travel will be up only slightly this year nationally – an increase of about 1.5 percent – in New England, about 7 percent more people are expected to hit the road to start the season, and a good number of people in the region still think of Maine as Vacationland.

But no one should bank on any forecasts this year, said Karen Peterson, founder of Davidson-Peterson, a travel industry market research firm in Kennebunk.

She noted that the economy is volatile and that means "travel is pretty much as volatile," since business and leisure travel both depend on a healthy economy to thrive.

Many Americans see travel as a right that they won't give up, she said, but they are cutting back on hotel and dining spending when they do go somewhere.

She said Maine won't be hurt too much by predictions that business travel will be down by nearly 6 percent this year, because Maine gets a relatively minor slice of the corporate travel market. Peterson said leisure travel is expected to dip by 2.5 percent this year, but 65 percent of Americans still expect to take a trip between May and October, and that's Maine tourism's high season.

But, she added, those travelers are "looking for bargains," and that puts pressure on the tourism industry to cut prices to attract business.

Peterson noted that many in the industry are loath to cut prices because travelers are likely to seek out those same low prices in the future. But this summer, maintaining prices is a luxury that few in the industry can afford, she said,

Hotel operators, she said, maintain "it's simply inappropriate for an upscale hotel to reduce prices," because higher rates support the levels of service that separate a high-end property from its budget cousins. "I say, not in this economy."

By EDWARD D. MURPHY, Staff Writer, Portland Press Herald, May 17, 2009


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