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Is Maine Kicking its Sprawl Habit?

December 10, 2008 - PORTLAND -- An aging population, volatile energy prices and the ongoing economic meltdown might do what 20 years of land-use planning has largely failed to accomplish in Maine – slow suburban sprawl and coax development closer to cities.

Census data studied by the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram reveal shifts that may signal a gradual reversal of long-standing development patterns that have contributed to sprawl.

Most significant: Population changes for 22 of the state's service-center communities show that the steady flow of people away from the cities during the 1990s has ebbed dramatically since 2000. A few communities, such as Bangor, Waterville and Belfast, have begun gaining population.

A similar analysis of every community in fast-growing York and Cumberland counties shows that the rapid pace of development in suburbs and outlying towns has cooled in recent years. The York County town of Dayton, for example, grew by more than 50 percent from 1990 to 2000. So far this decade, the growth rate there is less than 12 percent.

These comparisons were compiled by the Maine State Planning Office. Taken together, they hint at changes in development patterns that have endured in Maine for half a century.

Unplanned, sprawling development is frowned upon because it eats up farm and forest land, and increases the need for schools, public safety and other services. Planners encourage towns to enact zoning that directs growth to concentrated areas within communities and preserves open space. But these ideals often butt up against individual property rights, and the choices of a car-oriented society in which large homes on oversized lots are considered desirable.

MANY FORCES AT WORK

Now those desires may be changing a bit.

No one factor seems to be responsible for the shift – rising land prices, the slowing economy in New England and growth caps that many towns enacted to limit housing starts may all be contributing.

"I would guess it's a combination of different factors," said Amanda Rector, an economist at the planning office who tracks census figures.

Also unclear, Rector said, is where the population shift is coming from.

"Has the slower population decline, and in some places, population increase, come from people moving to cities from suburban towns, from rural areas, or from out-of-state, out-of-country?" she wondered.

Some answers might emerge when the U.S. Census Bureau takes a comprehensive look at population figures in 2010, Rector said.

The preliminary census figures complement information collected earlier this month by the Press Herald showing that fewer new homes will be built in southern Maine this year than at any time since at least 1991. Some of the more striking declines in building permits are in suburbs away from cities.

It is common for permit requests to slide in a recession. When the economy recovers, however, construction tends to pick up again in the countryside, along with the familiar debate over how to balance growth while preserving Maine's natural resources and rural character.

Alan Caron, president and founder of the anti-sprawl advocacy group, GrowSmart Maine, said he believes this economic cycle will turn out different.

'THERE'S NO GOING BACK'

Changing demographics, he said, already are reducing the number of young families moving to remote suburbs in search of open space, cheaper land and lower taxes. Last summer, $4 a gallon gasoline heightened awareness of the cost of commuting to far-away job centers.

Add to that an expected long-term hangover from the current fiscal crisis that's likely to reduce school aid, road construction and other government spending, Caron said, and incentives that helped draw people to rural Maine are drying up.

"You take those three things in combination, and there's no going back," he said.

To capitalize on the change, GrowSmart is supporting tax incentives and programs that reward developers who turn empty downtown mills into homes and businesses, and build affordable housing closer to city centers , for example. Next year, it will promote a bond issue in the Legislature that would mirror the popular Land for Maine's Future program, and use the money for public improvements in cities and towns.

"You can't really save the countryside unless you make it easier for people to live in communities," he said.

This approach follows a conclusion by GrowSmart that Maine's overall growth control strategy has been largely ineffective.

The 20-year old Growth Management Act is meant to help towns direct development to existing built-up areas through their local comprehensive plans. That planning process was mandatory when the law was first enacted. It's voluntary now, relying on some state financial incentives.

That approach isn't working, however. Nearly half the state's 455 communities lack plans consistent with the law, according to the planning office. Fewer still have enacted effective land-use ordinances to support their plans.

State and regional planners say comprehensive plans remain an important and evolving expression of local control, despite their shortcomings. And it may be too soon to know, they add, whether today's energy and economic trends will be enduring and powerful enough to trigger lasting change.

For instance: Gas prices are half of what they were in summer, easing commuting concerns – at least for the moment.

"I think the jury is still out," said Liz Hertz, director of land use planning at the State Planning Office. "But if Alan (Caron) is right, it could be an unintended benefit from the horrible (economic) situation we're all in."

MARKET TRUMPS POLICIES?

In the meantime, market forces may accomplish what sprawl fighters struggle to achieve.

Waterville's population fell by nearly 10 percent in the 1990s. So far this decade, it's up 2 percent. The ongoing redevelopment of the landmark Hathaway Shirt factory is expected to further boost the city's population.

Construction is under way for 66 apartments. Occupancy is set for March, according to Paul Boghossian, the project's developer. Small units will rent for $880 a month, with heat. Boghossian said he's getting inquiries from young professionals and retirees moving from big homes who want to live downtown. He's also hearing from workers with jobs at the First Park business center in neighboring Oakland, which draws people from dozens of towns across central Maine.

"Some of those commutes are becoming untenable," he said.

Mill redevelopment also is changing the face of downtown Biddeford and neighboring Saco, which has an Amtrak train station.

"You won't recognize this area in 10 years," said Doug Sanford, who is redeveloping the North Dam Mill in Biddeford.

Forty businesses are in the mill complex and Sanford recently completed 44 apartments. Many are filled with University of New England students, but Sanford said people who once lived in Waterboro, Hollis and other York County suburbs are starting to filter in.

Of course, not everyone wants to live in a renovated mill block. A growing market is emerging for single-family homes on smaller lots that are close to services.

Saco has seen steady growth since 1990. One reason, said Peter Morelli, the economic development director, is that the city wants to accommodate subdivision development within strict guidelines. It has no growth cap, unlike 16 York County communities. And it has zoning that encourages small lot sizes. Recently, it worked out a financial arrangement with a developer to extend sewer lines to an area where middle-income and affordable housing may spring up.

The developer, Elliott Chamberlain of Chamberlain Homes, has just begun developing Ross Ridge. The 75 house lots are about five minutes from the Maine Turnpike exit. Public sewer and water let him make lots as small as one-third of an acre. They start at $75,000, which he said is roughly $15,000 less than a typical house lot in Saco.

"Ross Ridge still has a wooded background, but you're right in the heart of the city," he said.

Next door in Scarborough, Chamberlain is building Dunstan Crossing, a planned community with mix of homes on lots as small as 5,000 square feet. Chamberlain isn't waiting to study more statistics. He already sees the demographic changes happening. And he expects energy and economic concerns to reinforce the trend.

"There is a desire," he said, "to be closer to services, in a more-dense neighborhood on a smaller piece of land."

By TUX TURKEL, Staff Writer, Portland Press Herald, December 7, 2008


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